The last significant nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia — the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) — officially expired on February 5, 2026, removing a key cap on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals and stirring fresh concerns about a potential arms race and global strategic stability.
What Was New START?
First signed in 2010 by then-U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, New START had acted as the cornerstone of strategic arms control for more than a decade. The treaty limited both countries to no more than 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and 700 delivery systems including land-based missiles, submarine missiles, and bombers. It also provided for mutual inspections and data exchanges — tools that fostered transparency and reduced mistrust between Washington and Moscow.
Extended once in 2021 for an additional five years, the pact was due to lapse in early February 2026. Despite offers by Moscow to maintain the treaty limits for another year, U.S. leaders opted not to formalize an extension, instead calling for a new framework that brings in other nuclear powers, particularly China.
Why It Matters
For decades, New START helped cap the potential for an unfettered nuclear build-up between Russia and the United States. Its expiration marks the first time since the Cold War that no legally binding limits govern the strategic arsenals of the world’s dominant nuclear powers, a development that many experts describe as dangerously destabilizing.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called the lapse a “grave moment for international peace and security”, warning it could increase the risk of nuclear weapon use and weaken broader arms-control efforts such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Global Reactions and Rising Tensions
Reactions to the treaty’s end have spanned disappointment and concern. China’s foreign ministry described the expiration as “regrettable” while reaffirming Beijing will not join disarmament negotiations at this stage. Russia has publicly stated it will act “responsibly,” even as both nations acknowledge the urgent need for fresh arms-control talks.
Meanwhile, the United States has accused China of secret nuclear tests and pushed for a new multilateral framework that would include Beijing — a demand China has firmly rejected, complicating the prospects for broader disarmament efforts.
What It Means for India and the Region
The treaty’s expiration carries particular significance for countries in Asia, including India, which finds itself positioned between two nuclear rivals. China’s nuclear arsenal — estimated at upwards of 600 warheads — has been growing rapidly, increasing New Delhi’s strategic concerns. India maintains a policy of credible minimum deterrence, balancing national security without triggering a region-wide arms race.
To India’s west, Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile — estimated at around 170 warheads — continues to expand, adding a layer of complexity to South Asia’s security landscape. Analysts warn that the absence of U.S.-Russia restraints could indirectly embolden regional nuclear build-ups, especially if broader arms-control norms erode.
Looking Ahead: Arms Control in a Multipolar Nuclear World
The expiration of New START underlines a deeper transformation in global strategic dynamics. What was once a bilateral framework built during the Cold War era is increasingly outpaced by the realities of a multipolar nuclear world where China, India, Pakistan, and North Korea each shape regional risk environments.
While both Washington and Moscow have signaled a desire to restart dialogue, the shape and scope of future arms-control agreements — and whether they can effectively include major nuclear actors beyond the United States and Russia — remain uncertain. For now, the lapse of New START leaves the world’s largest nuclear arsenals unchecked by formal limits for the first time in half a century, with far-reaching implications for global stability
